It seems all the news is buzzing about it.  BRIC is suddenly real.  Its first-ever summit, coinciding with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Yekaterinburg (see my last post) has launched the 4-nation bloc onto the world stage and has elevated the acronym BRIC into the realm of common diplomatic parlance.  Some news sources are calling BRIC a “new political bloc“.  While the name BRIC has been around for several years, the four nations did accomplish a few political gestures during their first formal meeting:

• A resolution on membership and participation in global institutions.  BRIC’s statement is as follows: “We are committed to advance the reform of international financial institutions so as to reflect changes in the world economy. The emerging and developing economies must have a greater voice” (Russia’s recently canceled application to the WTO replaced by a joint proposal with Belarus and Kazakhstan is one such example of this).
• Pledges to work together on issues pertaining to energy, food security, education and science.  It remains to be seen if these nations can actually accomplish this.  India and China in particular could benefit from energy and food partnerships
• A declaration calling for a “more diversified international monetary system”.  This is basically a call for non dollar-based international reserve currency, and, as my commenter ACWorld points out, has been on Russia’s agenda for quite some time.   Incidentally, the dollar lost ground yesterday as BRIC made its declaration.

Analysts are largely viewing the event as a rejection of continued US hegemony.  But other important events took place at both BRIC and the simultaneous SCO.

Of note:

• Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made a whirlwind visit to the summit to announce that “the age of empires has ended“
• Indian Prime Minister Manhoman Singh and Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari met on the sidelines of the conferences to discuss potential cooperation, suggesting a thaw between the 2 nations.
• China pledged a $10 billion loan to SCO member nations to help shore up their crisis-stricken economies.  This large aid package from Beijing points to continued Chinese economic clout and international influence.

All told, Russia certainly flexed its muscles by hosting the summit.  But it was Beijing that proved itself most worthy and significant.  By throwing around money and by forging key deals with Central Asian nations, China is continuing to prove itself a reliable economic partner with a talent at making the most it can of the financial crisis.

Photo Credit: AFP.

My colleague David Kampf pointed out that the BRIC leaders are meeting tomorrow in Yekaterinburg, Russia.   Before the BRIC meeting, however, an equally important and significant meeting took place today in the same location.  The six heads of state of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) met for a small summit.  The summit will continue tomorrow alongside BRIC meetings.  While the BRIC is looking to challenge the G7, the SCO (consisting of Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) is a foil to NATO, and it is growing in its regional scope and influence.  This year the SCO Sri Lanka and Belarus in as official “dialogue partner” nations. (Mongolia, Pakistan, India and Iran already hold “observer” status, and Iran has submitted an application to officially join the SCO).

Just as the financial crisis is the main focus of the BRIC meeting, so it is for the SCO summit.  Security is also a central issue.  A great deal seems to have been accomplished already over the development of the summit.  Russia used the opportunity to play diplomat and peacemaker, holding a meeting for Afghan President Hamid Karzai and Pakistani Prime Minister Asid Ali Zardari.  The two leaders along with President Medvedev formed a “united front against terror“. (Some have pointed out that Moscow seeks a greater role in Afghanistan.) Indian Prime Minister Manhoman Signh and Pakistani PM Zardari are also scheduled to meet - for the first time since after the November Mumbai terror attacks. As expected, the economic powerhouse of Chine has profited and will continue to profit the most from the SCO.  China and Uzbekistan pledged closer colloration and cooperation on “trade, economy, energy, security and culture.” Beijing also reinforced its already strong ties with Kyrgyzstan.  Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is expected to attend, but has delayed his trip due to public discontent regarding his recent reelection.

While all these economic and diplomatic ventures are unquestionably beneficial and expected, one key element has been missing from commentary concerning the SCO meeting: North Korea.  Given Pyongyang’s recently restated belligerent nuclear stance, one would expect Russia and China in particular to express more concern, especially in the forum of the SCO which is, as stated in its mission statement, an organization devoted to mutual security.  The most specific discussion I have found of the North Korea issue is in the Russian news source ITAR-TASS, which explains that North Korea is on the agenda but that the SCO will not produce a report on it.

On a slightly unrelated note, Foreign Policy’s Andrew Weiss, wrote a feature today on the BRIC summit, painting Russia as the “odd man out” because of its floundering economic clout.

Photo: Xinhua.

A lot.

India has come under increased fire by international human rights groups for its lack of action during Sri Lanka’s war against the Tamil Tiger rebels (LTTE).  Some have even called India complicit in the killing of 20,000 Tamil civilians in Sri Lankan due to its provision of arms to the Sri Lankan government, its “unwavering diplomatic support” for Colombo and its unwillingness to use its influence to forge a ceasefire.  Among the most vocal critics are Indian Major-General Ashok Mehta, a former commander of Indian peacekeeping forces in Sri Lanka, Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International.

In the long run, India is unlikely to be affected by these criticisms.  After all, Sri Lanka’s civil conflict has relatively little geopolitical bearing on other parts of the globe.  (Although this point can be debated, as Sri Lanka does occupy a key geostrategic shipping and naval position and Colombo will attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit for the first time next month as an observer.) Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see if the more influential National Congress Party in New Delhi will change its policies toward its southern neighbor, especially given India’s large population of at least 60 million Tamils, the rumors that many LTTE rebels might have escaped into India, and the call by Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama’s call for India to be an “important partner” in reconstructing the island nation.

Photo Credit: AP.

Central Asia has taken center stage this week in series of military maneuveres and developments.  In a broad way, these developments can be seen as evidence of larger posturing between Russia (and to a lesser extent, China) on one hand and NATO and the US on the other.

First, on Saturday, China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan held joint war exercises involving 1,000 soldiers as part of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) activities.  (Uzbekistan chose not to take part.)  The exercises, staged in Tajikistan, involved a “plot” in which “al Qaeda” insurgents crossed the border and took control of a chemical factory.  According to Reuters, the soldiers had to carry out very unique exercises:

Tajik soldiers demonstrated their ability to tear apart a live rabbit with their teeth and hands. Another soldier bit off the head of a small snake and ate it.

The SCO’s war games in Tajikistan are followed quickly by controversy over contrasting war games in the Caucasus, in Georgia: NATO is holding exercises there from May 6 to June 1.  Georgia, undergoing a domestic political crisis and still hurting from the loss of Abkhazia and South Osseita from the August 2008 war with Russia, is in a period of existential crisis.  A potential NATO candidate, it also is a key strategic position, most importantly for the planned Nabucco Pipeline that would help reroute gas from Russian supply routes and give Europe more agency in the natural resource market.

Russia has protested the NATO-Georgia war game plans, and has canceled its May 7 meeting with NATO to further express its dissatisfaction.  Kazakhstan announced yesterday that it would not participate in the NATO war games, mainly out of deference to Russia.  As a side note, Radio Armenia has reported that Armenia will participate in the exercises, despite the possibility that it could jeopardize its relationship with Russia.  It will be telling to note if NATO tones down the war games plans in order to bolster its tenuous ties with Moscow.  After all, NATO-Russia relations were just recently reestablished after they had been severed in August 2008.  No matter what happens, it is clear that Georgia continues to be a key strategic entity.

Finally, today, the US and Tajikistan signed a deal in which Dushanbe allows American military forces to use Tajik territory for transit of non-military cargo to Afghanistan.  This adds to the already existent US’ dossier of agreeements with Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, providing for non-military transit headed to Afghanistan… and all these agreements have been set up in order to replace the closure of the Manas Air Base in Kyrgyzstan.

Photo Credit: AFP.

For the first time, an American official attended a meeting organized by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The SCO met in Moscow on Friday to discuss Afghanistan. Patrick Moon, the United States deputy assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asia, was present and commented that the US views “this as a positive forum for additional cooperation on Afghanistan.”

“There are proposals…for the SCO countries to cooperate on counterterrorism, counter narcotics and counter organized crime. These are positive steps and we will look at where we might be able to contribute.”

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization includes China, Russia and four Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The SCO could serve as a regional counterweight to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, but there is potential for cooperation with the security grouping on issues of mutual concern – the invitation to the US opened the window for collaboration.

Evan Feigenbaum, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former US state department official, was interviewed about the conference last week. Mr. Feigenbaum said the meeting offered “an opportunity for the United States to try to turn what are ostensibly common interests [in Afghanistan] into complementary polices.”

“We really don’t understand what the SCO is in part because SCO members themselves don’t know what the SCO is. Is it a security group? Is it a trade bloc? Is it a group of non-democratic countries that have created a kind of safe zone where the United States and Europeans don’t talk to them about human rights and democracy?”

The Council also published a backgrounder on the SCO.

The conference was held on the same day President Obama released his new “AfPak” strategy for US involvement in Afghanistan and Pakistan and days before the United Nations conference in The Hague.

For more, check out the FPA’s blog on Afghanistan.

Photo from Mikhail Klimentyev.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) comprised of Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

The SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) has grown in prominence during the past several years as a regional counterweight to NATO.  Comprised of China, Russia, and 4 of the “Stans” (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan), the SCO was formed in 1996 with the signing of the Treaty on Deepening Military Trust in Border Regions.  The organization is undoubtedly important mainly for its Russian and Chinese membership and the fact that it emphasizes an alliance between Moscow and Beijing.  It also is significant because it brings 4 important Central Asian nations into the fold of this alliance, thereby diffusing some of the tension that Russia and China share over the resources of the region.  Each year, analysts take note of SCO summit meetings with increased intensity.  Recent years have seen SCO summits bring about heightened economic and military cooperation among member states, which makes European nations and NATO none-too comfortable.

Iran has also expressed its open interest in joining the SCO on various occasions.  It put in its formal bid for SCO membership in early 2008.  Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Borodavkin on Friday dispelled any of Tehran’s wishes by stating clearly that Iran would not make the cut for the SCO this year.  A number of factors play into Iran’s exclusion, including logistical considerations, linguistic barriers (Chinese and Russian are the 2 accepted languages of the alliance), resource sharing, military partnerships and economic cooperation.  All this aside, some might consider Russia’s firm words against Iran to be another signal of rapprochement with the US.  Last week Moscow denied a shipment of S-300 missiles to Iran, announcing it wanted to wait until Presidents Medvedev and Obama met and discussed the US’ planned eastern European missile defense shield.  The US, wary of Tehran’s dominance in the Middle East, does not want to see Iran part of any regional alliance that would give it more power and legitimacy.  Russia is well attuned to this and could be using its leverage in the SCO to its advantage.

The SCO summit is in Yekaterinburg, Russia in June, but in the months leading up to the summit, much will be learned about the way resurgent Russia and rising China will use the event to their advantage.

For more, visit Eurasianet.org’s article on Iran’s bid for the SCO.