Should America be a great power? If so, can the United States remain a great power? Christian Brose, senior editor at Foreign Policy, and Rachel Kleinfeld, president of the Truman National Security Project, debate the future of the world’s hegemon and rising heavyweights on bloggingheads.tv.
Christian Brose argues that “the greatest advantage that the United States has going forward is that as other countries become more powerful there is always going to be the feeling among their neighbors and among others in the world that they are going to view that apprehensively and I think they are going to look to the United States…to provide you with a security partner.”
“The United States could destroy ourselves if we’re not careful,” warns Rachel Kleinfeld. And she argues that the previous administration in Washington “lost more of America’s power over the last eight years than we’ve ever seen before.”
Video from blogginghead.tv.
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I took the time of listening to the whole discussion between Christian Brose and Rachel Kleinfeld and I find that although they did touch on the main issue today in international politics, the future of American power and the rise of the rest, they miss the point altogether. Indeed we are going to see in the near term more of India and China on the international scene, but the US will also play a privileged role. Yes, US power will not be as predominant as it is today, or in the 1990s but still it will be there and will be indispensable for maintaining the balance of power. Furthermore US power should not be seen as benign or malign, but it terms of its usefulness for America per se, but also for its allies. Power is a complex notion and characterizing it in such terms undermines its very nature. If the US wants to be relevant, it should concentrate on the big issues, the rising powers / how to woo them, how to integrate them and how to deter them.
In regard to security, I think we will see a slow return to the great power politics of the XIXth century. We will see a lot of alliances being formed on the global and regional level, with regional players vying to attract or balance the power of the great powers. Security will be complex, as armed forces around the world will have to adapt to both fighting a classic war as well as being prepared to fight insurgencies, deal with terrorists and mount peacekeeping and humanitarian operations. It will be a complex game and one should bear in mind that wars, especially great power wars involve both symmetrical means and asymmetrical means (electronic attacks, economic warfare, fostering insurgencies).
As for a possible conflict between China and the US I don’t see it irrupting in the near future. Christian Brose correctly pointed out that the US is dependent on China to finance its debt, but China is also dependent on the American market and requires American investment. When this situation will change, it is possible to see a war irrupting between America and China, most likely over the Taiwan Strait.
Nice post. I referenced it at http://greatpowerpolitics.com/
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